05-09-2021 Daily Prediction Rugby International New Australia vs New Zealand

Australia vs New Zealand

The Rugby Championship is back after a break for Covid issues. This also doubles as the 3rd match in the Bledisloe series although it’s a dead rubber. The Aussies will be desperate for a better showing after they suffered a record defeat in their last match against the All Blacks. They will not have a better opportunity to beat their rivals as they will have a full house of 60000 fans supporting them and more importantly NZ will be missing three key players in Captain Sam Whitelock and their world class halfback pairing of Richie Mo’unga and Aaron Smith. The All Blacks have great replacement players but they would miss the class of Smith and Mo’unga in particular. The Aussies must not throw blind passes as they have conceded four intercept tries in the last two matches. They have selected Samu Kerevi in the midfield and he returns after a two year absence. His power and speed has been greatly missed and the All Blacks can expect him to come out firing.

TIP: The Aussies know that for them to cause an upset they will require their forward pack to stand up and provide them the platform to attack from.They have looked good with ball in hand but it’s the errors at crucial times that have let them down. They have stuck with Noah Lolesio at 10 and he will need to show the potential that we all know he has. It is interesting to note that Matt Toomua has been dropped and there is no back up at 10. The All Blacks know that the home team will come at them hard and it I’m looking forward to seeing how the new halfback pairing of Beauden Barrett and Brad Weber go. They would not have played together very often and the Aussies will look to pressurize them into mistakes. The bookies have the All Blacks as heavy favourites and I’m also tipping them for the win. The best odds on this bet are as follows:  Worldsportsbetting 1.13, Playabets 1.05 and Sunbet 1.12  

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

Australia vs New Zealand

  • In the last five matches there have been four wins for New Zealand and one win for Australia.
  • Four of the last five games have been won by the home team.
  • Australia has not won two consecutive home matches against New Zealand since 2011.

Latest results for both teams

New Zealand beat Australia 57-22 in their last match.

PREDICTION

We know that the Aussies will come out firing trying to avenge their record defeat but the player that stands out is skipper Michael Hooper. Even in defeat he was close to man of the match. His never say die spirit is unbelievably and his duel with opposing Captain Ardie Savea will be one for the ages. The home team love running the ball and in Tate McDermott they have one of the best attacking scrumhalves. He will test the NZ fringe defence around the rucks and mauls. The man that is a deadly finisher, Marika Koroibete simply has to see more of the ball as his talent is being wasted. Both teams have super quick wings and will try to get the ball to them but all the hard work starts in the forwards. The packs are evenly matched but I think the All Blacks have the edge in the scrums. I expect a much tighter contest than what the bookies are predicting so I’m going for the All Black win by less than 14 points

  • Probable Starting XVs

Australia

15 Tom Banks, 14 Marika Koroibete, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Andrew Kellaway, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Michael Hooper (captain), 6 Lachlan Swinton, 5 Matt Philip , 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Ala’alatoa, 2 Folau Fainga’a , 1 James Slipper.

New Zealand

15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 David Havili, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Brad Weber, 8 Ardie Savea (c), 7 Dalton Papalii, 6 Akira Ioane, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 George Bower

Odds for this bet

The best odds on the New Zealand victory are as follows:

Worldsportsbetting 1.13

Playabets 1.05

Sunbet 1.12

Odds comparison on the Australia handicap  :

The complete odds on the Australia handicap:

Worldsportsbetting (+17.5) 1.90

Sunbet (+17.5) 1.90

Playabets (+17.5) 1.83

Predictions and Odds in details

Australia is a different beast when they play at home and the All Blacks will need to be at their best to win this match. I am still perplexed why Coach Rennie persists with keeping their best prop Taniela Tupou on the bench. In the last game when he was brought on it was too late as the match was over as a contest. This match however the Aussie bench looks stronger than the All Blacks and if they can stay close on the scoreboard then we could see an exciting final quarter. The Aussies have struggled in the lineouts and hopefully they have fixed this problem by bringing in new hooker Folau Fainga’a. The absence of Whitelock will help the Aussies as he was excellent at disrupting their lineouts. The returns for punters on the All Blacks outright win are very poor therefore I suggest the Aussies on the handicap. The best odds on this bet are as follows: Worldsportsbetting (+17.5) 1.90, Sunbet (+17.5) 1.90 and Playabets (+17.5) 1.83 For those punters who fancy a long shot you can get the Aussies for the win at 7.50

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