Chiefs vs Rebels

This match has been moved from NZ to Sydney at the last minute because of Covid 19 restrictions in Melbourne. The change of venue will obviously suit the Rebels as they used Sydney as their home ground in last year’s SR AU. The big news for the Chiefs team is that they will be without their star player Damian Mckenzie as he will miss the rest of the tournament due to his red card suspension. This will have a major impact on them but Caleb Trask showed in the second half against the Reds that he can do the job at flyhalf. The Rebels looked better in their last outing and it was most pleasing to see Marika Koroibete score his first try of the season and soon afterwards he got his second. He will once again be a key player for the Rebels as he has power and loads of pace. It was also pleasing to see the Rebels run with the ball and not kick away possession aimlessly. Matt Toomua moving to the 12 jersey has helped them in attack and rookie flyhalf Carter Gordon has also started looking good. The Chiefs have shown all season they are one of the best attacking sides and are deadly from anywhere on the field. They have the best offloading game and the interplay between forwards and backs in the best in the competition. The loss of Mckenzie will not only hurt them in attack but also in defence as he is a key man in their defensive set. The man that has been their best attacking player since his return to the team is Chase Tiatia  as he always beats the first defender and makes the most unbelievably offloads for the players around him. The Rebels will need to be on their toes every time he gets the ball.

TIP: Chiefs may have the flashy game but they also have a great scrum and forward pack. They have two of the best fetchers in the competition in Luke Jacobson and Lachlan Boshier and it’s from these turnovers that they score most of their tries. The Rebels will not be able to defend for eighty minutes and will have to believe in the old adage of attack is the best form of defence. The Chiefs showed they are vulnerable when they are attacked and tend to concede lots of penalties under pressure. The scrum battle will go a long way to deciding this match and the Rebels front row will need to man up against All Black Angus Ta’avao who has been at destructive best this season. The bookies have the Chiefs as heavy favourites and this is the right call. The change of venue will make this game much closer than many expect. The best odds on the Chiefs win is as follows: Worldsportsbetting 1.11, Playabets 1.08 and Sunbet 1.10

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

Chiefs vs Rebels

  • Chiefs have won all six of the seven meeting between these sides with just one lone victory for the Rebels.
  • The last three games between the two have been won by the Chiefs.
  • The Rebels only victory came in 2015.

Latest results for both teams

The Chiefs lost their last match against the Reds 40-34 while the Rebels lost 42-27 against the Highlanders in their last match.

PREDICTION

Both these teams are out of contention for the title so hopefully they will play an open expansive game. This will suit the Chiefs as they are deadly on turnover ball. The Rebels though will be more desperate than the Chiefs and will be looking to break their duck. They will be helped by a home crowd and an opposition team missing their star player. The players like Isi Naisarani and Michael Wells will need to show the form that made them Wallabies as they are up against the best loose trio in the competition. It was good to see Joe Powell return to form in the last match as he offers so much when he makes his sniping runs around the rucks and mauls. This match will be won by the Chiefs but it won’t be a one side contest therefore I predict a Chiefs win by less than 13 points

  • Probable Starting XVs

Chiefs

15 Shaun Stevenson, 14 Bailyn Sullivan, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Chase Tiatia, 10 Kaleb Trask,, 9 Brad Weber (captain), 8 Luke Jacobson, 7 Lachlan Boshier, 6 Pita Gus Sowakula, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Mitchell Brown, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Bradley Slater, 1 Aidan Ross.

Rebels

15 George Worth, 14 Lachie Anderson, 13 Campbell Magnay, 12 Matt Toomua, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Carter Gordon, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Michael Wells, 6 Robert Leota, 5 Trevor Hosea, 4 Ross Haylett-Petty, 3 Cabous Eloff, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Cameron Orr.

Odds for this bet

The best odds on the Chiefs victory are as follows:

Worldsportsbetting 1.11

Playabets 1.08

Sunbet 1.10

Odds comparison on the Rebels handicap:

The complete odds on the Rebels handicap:

Worldsportsbetting (+18.5) 1.90

Sunbet (+18.5) 1.92

Playabets (+15.5) 1.89

Predictions and Odds in details

This season we have seen Matt Toomua kick away ball to the opposition much to the detriment of the team but it was good to see him finally change his tactics in the last match. The Rebels looked good in attack and they need to get the ball out to Koroibete and he will do the rest. The Chiefs team have attacking threat across the park but the spark is often provided by skipper Brad Weber. The underrated 9 has great pace and gets his players into space so Joe Powell will need to watch his opposite number very closely. The centre pairing of Anton Lienert-Brown and Alex Nankivell have come to the fore in recent games and are excellent at linking up the dangerous wingers of the Chiefs. For the Rebels to make this a contest they need to slow the Chiefs ball down otherwise this match could be over as a contest very early on. There is very poor return for punters on the Chiefs win therefore I suggest the Rebels on the handicap. The best odds on the Rebels handicap are as follows: Worldsportsbetting (+18.5) 1.90, Sunbet (+18.5) 1.92 and Playabets (+15.5) 1.89

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