Reds vs Brumbies

The Super Rugby AU final is here and it’s a repeat of last year’s final with the difference being that the Reds have home ground advantage. Suncorp stadium will be packed with an expected crowd of close to 50000 fans. This will provide a major boost to the Reds and this will go a long way in helping them secure the title. The Reds have beaten the Brumbies both home and away this season so they rightly start as slight favourites. Both the matches highlighted the Reds strength on the bench as both matches were won by the Reds substitutes late in the match. The Brumbies have shown to be a great first half team and have led at the break in all their matches but it’s the second half that has seen them falter. The home team has seen this pattern of the Brumbies and in turn has left star players like Filipo Daugunu and Alex Mafi on the bench so that they can once again come on and run the tired Brumbies ragged in the last quarter. The Reds will miss the services of hardman Hunter Paisami who is out with a facial fracture. His replacement is young Josh Flook who while lacking the physical presence of Paisami is an excellent runner who will add to the Reds attack. The player of the season for me has been Taniela Tupou and the Wallaby front rower has dominated in the scrum but his running game has been unstoppable for defenses. The Brumbies biggest attacking weapon is their driving maul but recently teams have seen to negate the threat and this has made life difficult for a team that relies so heavily on the maul.

TIP: At the start of the season there was much talk about who will wear the Wallabies number 10 jersey but that discussion is well and truly over now. James O’Connor has been the general of this Reds team all season with his all-round game management and his deadly accurate kicking off the tee. He has always been the calming influence on this team and even when they were trailing teams it was his cool head that got them over the line. His head to head battle with Noah Lolesio will be closely watched but I feel its O’Connor’s experience that will see him come out on top. The bookies have the Reds as slight favourites although I am tipping a comfortable win for the home side. The best odds on the Reds victory are as follows: Worldsportsbetting 1.60, Playabets 1.51 and Sunbet 1.60

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

Reds vs Brumbies

  • The last five meetings between the sides have seen the Reds hold a 3 to 2 edge over the Brumbies.
  • The last ten encounters have seen just one away victory.
  • The last time the Brumbies beat the Reds at home was in 2014.

Latest results for both teams

The Reds lost their last match against the Western Force 27-30 while the Brumbies beat the Western Force 21-9 in their last match.

PREDICTION

Rugby finals are decided by the forwards and the Reds definitely have the edge in this aspect. The scrum of the Brumbies will be severely tested as James Slipper is out injured and they have also lost influential number 8 Pete Samu to injury. These are two international players that will surely be missed and couple that with the firepower that the Reds have in the starting XV and on the bench and you will see it could be a very difficult day for the Brumbies. Noah Lolesio struggles to command a game if his forwards don’t dominate and this was the main reason that the Reds beat the Brumbies twice this season. For the Brumbies to win this game they will need Nic White to help Lolesio in managing the game otherwise Reds playmaker O’Connor will steer his team to a comfortable win. I can’t see the Brumbies forward pack withstanding the Reds onslaught therefore I predict a Reds victory by more than 7 points.

  • Probable Starting XVs

Reds

15 Bryce Hegarty, 14 Jordan Petaia, 13 Josh Flook, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Jock Campbell, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Liam Wright (captain), 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Angus Scott-Young, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Feao Fotuaika

Brumbies

15 Tom Banks, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Rob Valetini , 7 Rory Scott, 6 Nick Frost, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 James Slipper.

Odds for this bet

The best odds on the Reds victory are as follows:

Worldsportsbetting 1.60

Playabets 1.51

Sunbet 1.60

Odds comparison on a Reds handicap victory:

The complete odds on the Reds handicap victory:

Worldsportsbetting (-3.5) 1.80

Sunbet (-4.5) 1.95

Playabets (-4.5) 1.84

Predictions and Odds in details

The confidence in the Reds team is very evident as they never seem to panic even when behind on the scoreboard. The credit must go to coach Brad Thorn who has taken a young talented squad and moulded them to be the best team in Australia. The Brumbies have dominated the Aus. conference every year so it’s a welcome change that there are now worthy challengers to their crown. The Reds have shown that they are a well organised team with their forwards doing the hard graft which enables the backline to show case their skills. The challenge when playing the Reds has been the super subs that they call on in the last quarter. These players have been superb in destroying the opposition in the last 20 minutes and up to now nobody has had an answer.  I see this trend continuing therefore I suggest the Reds on the handicap bet which provides good value to the punter. The best odds on the Reds handicap victory are at Worldsportsbetting (-3.5) 1.80, Sunbet (-4.5) 1.95 and Playabets (-4.5) 1.84

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