Rebels vs Western Force

These two teams will be disappointed with their overall performances in this year’s tournament but they still have a chance of redemption in this match. The Reds and Brumbies have all but secured the top two places leaving the Rebels and Force to fight it out for the last playoff spot. We can expect a slug fest as both these teams don’t score many tries. A win for the Rebels will go a long way to securing third spot while a loss for the Force will see them miss out on the third qualifying spot. Rebels tried to play an expansive game in their last match but it backfired as they gifted the Reds easy intercepted tries. They will need to be more patient in attack and there is nothing that the Force enjoys more than an arm wrestle. This match may well turn into a game of attrition with one score separating the teams. The Force will hope Irish star has overcome his injury woes as he was desperately missed in their defensive line. The obvious attacking threat in this match is Marika Koroibete but the Rebels struggle to get him into space where he can be deadly. Once again their key man will be Matt Toomua who marshals them around the field like the general but even he knows they need to show more teeth in attack. 

TIP: The Rebels will be keen to stamp their authority in the scrums but old war horse Greg Holmes has shown there is plenty of life in his legs even at 38. The winner of this game will be the more patient team and the Force is past masters at slowing the game down. The Rebels will win this due to them having the better halfback pairing in Toomua and Powell. This match will be a tight affair and I expect the Force to be competitive right until the final whistle with the Rebels victory margin will be in single digits. The bookies have the Rebels as overwhelming favourites with the best odds on a Rebels victory is as follows, Sunbet 1.29, Worldsportsbetting 1.28 and Sportingbet at 1.28

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

Rebels vs Western Force

  • In the last 5 matches the Rebels have won 4 with just the one Force victory.
  • The Rebels have only lost once at home to the Force in the last 8 home games.
  • The last 8 matches between these teams have been decided by less than 7 points.

Latest results for both teams

The Rebels lost their last match against the Reds 44-19 while the Force were beaten 42-14 by the Brumbies.

PREDICTION

There is a lot at stake here as the loser will probably kiss their playoff chances goodbye therefore this match will be a tight affair with possibly the more disciplined side winning so goal kicking will be a crucial issue in this match. If this match becomes a penalty fest then I expect the Rebels to come out on top because of the accurate boot of Matt Toomua. I’m predicting the Rebels to win this close encounter by less than 7 points.

  • Probable Starting XVs

Rebels

15 Tom Pincus, 14 Frank Lomani, 13 Stacey Ili, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Matt To’omua (c), 9 Joe Powell, 8 Michael Wells, 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Joshua Kemeny, 5 Trevor Hosea, 4 Steve Cummins, 3 Pone Fa’amausili, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Cabous Eloff

Western Force

15 Rob Kearney, 14 Byron Ralston, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Henry Taefu, 11 Richard Kahui, 10 Jake McIntyre, 9 Tomás Cubelli, 8 Brynard Stander (captain), 7 Kane Koteka, 6 Fergus Lee-Warner, 5 Sitaleki Timani, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 Feleti Kaitu’u, 1 Tom Robertson

Odds for this bet

The Rebels will win this tight contest but I back the Western Force to cover the handicap (+8.5) and this is the best odds on the Force handicap:

Sunbet (+9.5) 1.90

Playabets (+9.5) 1.85

Worldsportsbetting (+8.5)

Odds comparison on a Force handicap

The complete odds on the Force handicap (+8.5) are as follows:

Sunbet (+9.5) 1.90

Playabets (+9.5)1.82

Sportingbet (+10.5) 1.80

Worldsportsbetting (+8.5) 1.80

Predictions and Odds in details

The Rebels have built their game around a rock solid defence and counter attacking and when they tried to change this plan against the Reds they were ruthlessly exposed. The one player that provided an attacking threat all game was Frank Lomani, this is ironic as he is their back up scrumhalf but he played on the wing and was simply outstanding,  I can see both teams will be playing for territory afraid to make any mistakes in their own half so expect a tight game with few tries. The points scored being under 46.5 is a great bet with Playabets offering odds of 1.83.The best handicap bets on the Force are available  at Sunbet (+9.5) 1.90, Playabets (+9.5)1.82 and Sportingbet (+10.5) 1.80

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