Reds vs Brumbies

This match is in all probability the dress rehearsal of the final as these two teams can’t be caught at the top of the log. There is the major incentive of finishing top of the standings as you don’t need to play in the playoff match and more importantly the league topper gets to play the final at home. The Reds currently occupy top spot but a Brumbies win will see them go top. The home ground advantage for the final is crucial as no away team has won the final. The Brumbies will welcome back skipper Allan Alaalatoa from suspension and his leadership has been sorely missed in the last 3 weeks. Revenge will be a motivating factor for the Brumbies as the Reds beat them in Canberra with a last minute score. In that match the Brumbies had a severely depleted forward pack which the Reds took full advantage of. This time round the Brumbies are at full strength and this will be a battle of wits between Brumbies coach Dan Mckellar and Reds boss Brad Thorn. Both teams have the personnel to win but it will once again be the forwards that decide this match and I think the Brumbies may have the edge in this department. The Reds have again named a strange backline with try machine Filipo Daugunu once again on the bench. To me this is a show of disrespect to the Brumbies and is sure to fire up the visitors.

TIP:  Brumbies will be keen to show that they are not ready to give up their title and will come out firing in Brisbane. They are a great first half team and score most of their points in the first half while the Reds tend to finish matches stronger. The scrum battle between Wallabies Taniela Tupou and James Slipper will be fierce but the experience of the Brumbies will hold them in good stead. The Brumbies midfield pairing of Len Ikitau and Irae Simone have been the best in the competition and the Reds will do well to keep these two quiet. The bookies have the Reds as slight favourites but I am going for an away victory for the Brumbies. There are great odds on a Brumbies victory at Worldsportsbetting 2.30 while Sunbet and Playabets have them at 2.15.

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

Reds vs Brumbies

  • In the last 6 matches there have been 4 Brumbies victories and 2 for the Reds.
  • In the last 12 matches there has been only 1 away victory.
  • The Reds last lost at home to the Brumbies in 2015.

Latest results for both teams

The Reds won their last match against the Rebels 19-44 while the Brumbies beat the Waratahs 22-24.

PREDICTION

There has been a marked improvement by these two team in terms of their attack and they moved away from only relying on the forwards and this has seen the emergence of players like Jordan Petaia for the Reds and Len Ikitau for the Brumbies who love to run the ball. This match should see an open game but it will be those crucial last 20 minutes that will decide this match. Both teams have strong benches but I feel the tactical nous of Dan Mckellar will guide the Brumbies to a narrow victory. Brumbies to win by less than 6 points

  • Probable Starting XVs

Reds

15 Bryce Hegarty, 14 Jordan Petaia, 13 Hunter Paisami, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Jock Campbell, 10 James O’Connor (c), 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Angus Scott-Young, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Ryan Smith, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Feao Fotuaika

Brumbies

15 Tom Banks, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Tom Cusack, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (c), 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 James Slipper

Odds for this bet

The Brumbies will end the Reds unbeaten record and win this tight match. The best odds on the Brumbies victory are as follows;

Worldsportsbetting 2.30

Sunbet 2.15

Playabets 2.15

Odds comparison on a Brumbies victory

The complete odds on the Brumbies victory are as follows:

Worldsportsbetting 2.30

Sunbet 2.15

Playabets 2.15

Sportingbet 2.10

Predictions and Odds in details

Revenge is a great motivating factor for any team and no doubt this will drive the Brumbies in this top of the table clash. The Reds seem to be still experimenting with their backline and this will come back to bite them as the Brumbies always select their best XV for all their matches. The flyhalf battle will see the experienced James O’Connor against the much younger but very talented Noah Lolesio and the winner of this contest will go a long way to securing the win for their team. I feel Lolesio has the better all round game and should edge this battle. I have mentioned the odds on a Brumbies victory but the Brumbies handicap (+3.5) 1.84 is a great bet. Playabets offer you the chance to make serious money as they offer a Brumbies victory and more than 50 points scored at odds of 3.10

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