Italy vs Wales background

We are into the 4th round of the Six Nations and Wales have completed the Triple Crown by beating Ireland, Scotland and England. There were those critics that said Wales got lucky against Ireland and Scotland because those teams each had a player sent off. I say you can only play what’s in front of you. This was certainly the case when Wales brushed aside England in their last match to silence those critics. There could not be a greater contrast between two teams heading into this match, Italy have suffered 3 heavy defeats while Wales had 3 impressive wins. Italy coach Franco Smith had a reputation of his teams being weak defensively and that’s certainly the case with Italy. Welsh wingers Louis Rees-Zammit and Josh Adams will be licking their lips as this match is sure to be a try fest. Italy also showed their keenness to run the ball and this match could be really exciting if you love seeing lots of tries.

TIP: The winner in this contest WILL be Wales and it’s just a matter if they can cover the handicap. Since Warren Gatland handed the coaching reins to Wayne Pavic, Wales has adopted a ball in hand approach and this will send shivers down the Italian spines as this could turn into a cricket score. I expect Wales to cover the handicap (-25.5), Supabets has them at 1.89 on this handicap while Sunbet and 1xBet is offering 1.90 on the handicap

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

Italy vs Wales

  • The last 16 meetings between these sides has seen Wales being the victor
  • The last time Italy beat Wales was in 2007
  • The closest Italy has come to avoiding defeat in that time was 15-26 in 2019.

Latest results for both teams

Wales were victorious in their last match 40-24 against England while Italy were crushed 10-48 against Ireland.

PREDICTION

I am going for a lop-sided victory for the Welsh by more than 30 points. The all-round attacking game of this Wales team coupled with the porous defense of the Italians suggests to me that the Welsh will paint Rome red this weekend. Wales will see this game as an opportunity to improve their point’s differential considering how close the teams are in this year’s competition.

Probable Starting XV

Italy

15 Jacopo Trulla, 14 Luca Sperandio, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Carlo Canna, 11 Montanna Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Stephen Varney, 1 Andrea Lovotti, 2 Luca Bigi (C), 3 Marco Riccioni, 4 Marco Lazzaroni, 5 David Sisi, 6 Sebastian Negri, 7 Johan Meyer, 8 Michele Lamaro

Confirmed Starting XV

Wales

15 Liam Williams, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 George North, 12 Jonathan Davies, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Josh Navidi, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Cory Hill, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Wyn Jones

Odds for this bet

A Wales victory is a certainty as I said before and I expect them to comfortably cover the handicap (-25.5).   The best odds on this handicap are as follows:

Supabets 1.90

1xBet 1.89

Sunbet 1.90

Odds comparison

The best odds on the handicap(-25.5) are at Supabets 1.90 but since this is bound to be an open, running game I suggest a wager on the Total Points being over 53.5 and you get good value for your money at 1xBet at 1.91

Predictions  and Odds in details

I think the constant calls for Italy to be axed from the Six Nations will spur them into attacking Wales but this could back fire as Wales can be deadly on turn over ball. All this makes me believe it will be a high scoring game that will be great to watch for the neutral. Wales speed merchants on the wing and the ever dangerous George North will look to exploit Italy’s fragilities in defense. My best suggestion is Total Points over 53.5 at 1X Bet 1.91. The best handicap (-25.5) odds on Wales are at Sunbet 1.90

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