Force vs Chiefs

Both these teams at the start of their seasons could never have expected the success that they have enjoyed. The Chiefs were on a twelve game losing streak but miraculously found form, winning five games on the trot and ultimately losing in the SR Aotearoa final. The Force lost all their matches last season in SR AU but they recruited heavily and it paid handsome dividends with them reaching the SR playoffs for the first time in their history. The Chiefs will be buoyed by their showing in the final albeit in a losing cause as there were many positives none more so than the brilliant work of their loose trio who must be all potential All Blacks. Lachlan Boshier and Luke Jacobson are the best in the business with winning turnovers while Pita Gus Sowakula is a destructive runner with great off-loading skills. The Force will need to find a way to combat these three players otherwise the Chiefs backline will have a field day. The Force is not a flashy team but are scrappers who don’t give an inch. Their game plan is built on solid defence and pouncing on the opposition mistakes. The bad news is that on current form this Chiefs team hardly makes a mistake and if they can get their strike runners like Damian Mckenzie and Anton Lienert-Brown into the game then it could turn into a one sided contest. The man that set SR Aotearoa on fire was Mckenzie as he won four matches by scoring at the death. The guy is electric and doesn’t need a lot of space to find a gap, so the Force must be aware when they kick away possession. They do so at their own peril.

TIP: The home side have a simple formula and that is to back their defence and force errors from the opposition. This may work with AUS. teams but a team like the Chiefs it is a formula fraught with danger. Chiefs love to run the ball and the interplay between forwards and backline players is breath taking at times. The firepower in the Chiefs team will make it impossible to defend for 80 minutes. The Force will need to show some attacking threat and this could catch the Chiefs on the backfoot. My overall assumption is that it will be an easy victory for the Chiefs. The bookies also have them as favourites and these are the best odds on the Chiefs victory: Worldsportsbetting 1.12, Playabets 1.09 and Sunbet 1.12

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

Force vs Chiefs

  • In the last five meetings between these teams there has been just one Force victory.
  • In eight meetings the Force has managed just one victory.
  • The Chiefs last lost to the Force in 2014.

Latest results for both teams

The Force lost their last match against the Brumbies 21-9 while the Chiefs lost their last game 24-13 to the Crusaders.

PREDICTION

This match will see the ultimate contrast in styles as the Chiefs love to run the ball from anywhere on the park while the Force play a structured, set piece orientated game. This tactic may have worked in SR AU but I can’t see the Chiefs being sucked into this type of play. The Chiefs scrum was among the best in SR Aotearoa and I see that domination continuing which gives great attacking platforms for the dynamic Brad Weber to attack from.  The all-round superiority of the Chiefs team leads me to believe they will win this match comfortably by more than 17 points

  • Probable Starting XVs

Force

15 Jack McGregor, 14 Richard Kahui, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Kyle Godwin (captain), 11 Jordan Olowofela, 10 Domingo Miotti, 9 Tomás Cubelli, 8 Brynard Stander, 7 Kane Koteka, 6 Tim Anstee, 5 Sitaleki Timani, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Santiago Medrano, 2 Feleti Kaitu’u, 1 Tom Robertson

Chiefs

15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Jonah Lowe, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Alex Nankiville, 11 Chase Tiatia, 10 Bryn Gatland, 9 Brad Weber (co-captain), 8 Luke Jacobson, 7 Lachlan Boshier, 6 Pita Gus Sowakula , 5 Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 4 Mitchell Brown, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Aidan Ross

Odds for this bet

The best odds on the Chiefs victory are:

Worldsportsbetting 1.12

Playabets 1.09

Sunbet 1.12

Odds comparison on a Chiefs handicap victory

The complete odds on the Chiefs handicap victory are as follows:

Worldsportsbetting (-15.5) 1.80

Sunbet (-16.5) 1.90

Playabets (-15.5) 1.85

Predictions and Odds in details

This match will come down to the attacking skills of the Chiefs against the dogged yet effective defence of the Force. There is nothing wrong with having a game plan and sticking to it but it’s impossible to defend against a team like Chiefs for 80 minutes. Rob Kearney has been an astute signing for the Force and he will need all his experience to set up the defensive structures. He is known for his security under the high ball and he will surely be tested by the Chiefs backline. The Force will be competitive for the early part of the match but I expect the Chiefs to run away to a comfortable victory in the second half. There isn’t too much value at the bookies on a Chiefs outright victory therefore I suggest the Chiefs on a handicap victory. The best odds on the Chiefs handicap are: Worldsportsbetting (-15.5) 1.80, Sunbet (-16.5) 1.90 and Playabets (-15.5) 1.85

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