17-07-2021 Daily Prediction Rugby International Australia vs France

Australia vs France

This is the decider in the series and both the previous tests were decided by less than three points. Playing three tests in 10 days is a big ask for any team especially as the French have already missing so many first team regulars. The Wallabies will be kicking themselves wondering how they lost the last match. Both these team have thrown the previous tests in the dying minutes. The Aussies will have to be better disciplined as Melvyn Jaminet has proven to be an ace goal kicker. The home team has to consider themselves a little unlucky as they had a couple of Marika Koroibete tries disallowed. I’m glad to see the changes that they have made as Matt Toomua is dropped. He has been awful all season for both the Rebels and Wallabies. Len Ikitau showed his talent when he came on as a substitute and looked dangerous every time he touched the ball. Moving Hunter Paisami, to 12 may not be the greatest move as he is not a play maker and loves taking the ball into contact, if he can pass then the change is an inspired one. The French had many heroes in the last match and Jaminet is the obvious stand out with his points but the man that impressed the most is Cameron Woki. The youngster was everywhere on the park and he was a monster in the lineouts and at the breakdown. The home team must learn to cut out the unforced errors as this is hurting them the most. They are unable to build any continuity as their handling deserts them. The French have been excellent to attack with turnover ball.

TIP: The French got away with a lot of illegal play in the last match and the Aussies will hope the referee to more vigilant this time. The Aussies have finally selected Tate McDermott as the starting nine and with him they know the play will be fast and furious. The home team have been the fitter team but have started badly. They will have learnt from their lesson and I expect them to come out firing. The most impressive Wallaby has been Marika Koroibete and he has to see more ball. They also have Filipo Daugunu on the other wing and he’s playing on his home turf. The home team had the advantage in the scrums until the final scrum of the game and will look to continue their scrum dominance.  This scrum advantage needs to be turned into points otherwise it’s of no use. The bookies have the Aussies as favourites and I have to agree with this assessment. The best odds on the Aussie win is as follows Worldsportsbetting 1.53, Playabets 1.46 and Sunbet 1.48

Australia vs France

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

  • The Aussies lead 3-2 in the last five meeting between the sides.
  • The French have only beaten the Aussies once at home.
  • The last match between the sides saw the French win 28-26.

Latest results for both teams

France beat Australia 28-26 in their last match.

PREDICTION

The Aussies will be desperate for victory as this is an inexperienced and under strength French team. The Aussie youngsters like Noah Lolesio and Tate McDermott have the most important roles to play as they have to launch their potent back three. Tom Banks was superb and his team will be looking to him to make the line breaks and get them on the front foot. The French may struggle as they have lost their playmaker in Louis Carbonel therefore there will be loads of pressure on new number ten Antoine Hastoy. The Aussie ball carriers Isi Naisarani and Michael Hooper must look to attack his corridor. The home team rely a lot on their driving maul and it has fired to a certain extent but they need to be more clinical at lineout time. This is the match that the Aussies should dominate in all areas therefore I predict a home victory by 7 points.

  • Probable Starting XVs

Australia

15 Tom Banks, 14 Filipo Daugunu, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Lachlan Swinton, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 James Slipper

France

15 Melvyn Jaminet, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Pierre-Louis Barassi, 12 Arthur Vincent, 11 Teddy Thomas, 10 Antoine Hastoy, 9 Baptiste Couilloud, 8 Anthony Jelonch (c), 7 Cameron Woki, 6 Dylan Cretin, 5 Romain Taofifenua , 4 Cyril Cazeaux, 3 Tapu Falatea, 2 Gaetan Barlot, 1 Enzo Forletta

Odds for this bet

The best odds on the Australian victory are as follows:

Worldsportsbetting 1.53

Playabets 1.46

Sunbet 1.48

Odds comparison on the Australian handicap victory:

The complete odds on the Australian handicap victory:

Worldsportsbetting (-4.5) 1.90

Playabets (-5.5) 1.86

Sunbet (-5.5) 1.90

Predictions and Odds in details

The Aussies need to play the high tempo game from the onset as this will pay dividends later in the match. The strain of 3 matches in 10 days will take its toll as the French have looked very tired in the last quarter. The key area of improvement for the home team has to be their discipline. They needlessly gave away penalties and were duly punished. Coach Rennie has rung the changes and will be hoping the fresh players bring a new dimension and energy to the game. The French have brought Teddy Thomas into the team and he is world class on the wing and if given space then the Aussies will pay. His duel with Koroibete will be titanic and while he is great at attacking there have been question marks of his defence. No doubt he will be severely tested by Koroibete. There is a decent return for punters on the outright home win but the value bet for me is the home team on the handicap. The best odd on this bet is as follows: Worldsportsbetting (-4.5) 1.90, Playabets (-5.5) 1.86 and Sunbet (-5.5) 1.90

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