18-04-2021 Daily Predictions Super Rugby AU Rebels Vs Brumbies

Rebels vs Brumbies

There will be redemption on both these teams’ minds as they both lost last week, Rebels to the Force and the Brumbies to the Reds. The Rebels losing at home to the Force hurt more as they were heavy favourites to win but it is their lack of attacking threats that hamper them. They find it almost impossible to score tries and only rely on the boot of Matt Toomua to keep them in the contest. I think one of their big problems is that star player Marika Koroibete is so desperate for ball on the wing that he starts playing like a loose forward and then when a winger is needed he is stuck infield in a ruck and that is not his job. The Brumbies on the other hand have now lost twice this season to the Reds and once again showed that they are a great first half team but they falter in the last quarter. Last season when they won they the title they almost never conceded in the last 20 mins but this season has been really poor in the closing stages of games. It seems to be a conditioning issue because the players look knackered at the end of games. Brumbies need more control from flyhalf Noah Lolesio especially in the latter stages and when the going gets tough he seems to disappear. I see they have brought in a second playmaker, Bayley Kuenzle for this match and no doubt this is will be to help control the game. The Rebels need some variance in their attack as teams are able to easily repel their attacks as there is no innovation or direction.

TIP: The Brumbies know now that the top of the log position is out of their reach and maybe that will release the shackles and allow them to play more freely. The Rebels still have playoff aspirations but their inability to score points as been their Achilles heel and I can’t see them scoring against a very good Brumbies defence. The Brumbies as always will look to their rolling maul as it’s their biggest weapon, so the Rebels must avoid giving penalties anywhere in their half. The Bookies have Brumbies as favourites for this one and I’m in agreement with them and the best odds on a Brumbies victory are at Worldsportsbetting 1.40, Sunbet 1.37 and Playabets 1.38

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

Rebels vs Brumbies

  • The last five matches between the teams have all been won by the home team.
  • The Brumbies lead three matches to two in the last five matches.
  • The last time the Brumbies beat the Rebels at home was in 2016.

Latest results for both teams

The Rebels lost their last match against the Force 15-16 while the Brumbies lost their last match against the Reds 27-25.

PREDICTION

This match will be a battle of the forwards as both these teams tend to look for forward domination. The Brumbies game plan is simple, use their scrum to win penalties and then kick for touch to use their rolling maul. The Rebels biggest issue is that they are too willing to sit back and defend and their attacking problems are magnified when you see they have a scrumhalf, Frank Lomani as their attacking wing. The match will be decided up front and the Brumbies certainly have the big advantage here. This is why I am predicting a Brumbies victory by more than 9 points.

  • Probable Starting XVs

Rebels

15 Tom Pincus, 14 Frank Lomani, 13 Stacey Ili, 12 Campbell Magnay, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Matt To’omua (c), 9 Joe Powell, 8 Michael Wells, 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Josh Kemeny, 5 Trevor Hosea, 4 Rob Leota, 3 Pone Faamausili, 2 James Hanson, 1 Matt Gibbon

Brumbies

15 Tom Banks, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Bayley Kuenzle, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Ryan Lonergan, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Rory Scott, 6 James Tucker, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 Scott Sio

Odds for this bet

The Brumbies will be too strong for the Rebels and these are the odds on a Brumbies win:

Sunbet 1.37

Worldsportsbetting 1.40

Playabets 1.38

Odds comparison on a Brumbies handicap victory

The complete odds on the Brumbies handicap victory are as follows:

Sunbet (-7.5) 1.95

Worldsportsbetting (-6.5)1.90

Playabets (-6.5) 1.88

Predictions and Odds in details

The Brumbies have made a change to address their second half slumps and have shifted Nic White to the reserves bench as he can control the game with his big boot. I think it’s no coincidence that when White is taken off the Brumbies lose their shape so I see this as a wise move. The Rebels need an attacking mentality and need to stop kicking away possession because you can’t score without the ball. They back their defence which is very good but there has to be a balance between defence and attack. I feel that the Brumbies will comfortably cover the handicap offered and these are the best odds on the Brumbies handicap victory Sunbet (-7.5) 1.95 Worldsportsbetting (-6.5)1.90 Playabets (-6.5) 1.88

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