23-10-2021 Daily Predictions United Rugby Championship Cardiff vs Dragons

Cardiff vs Dragons

This is a weekend of local derbies and this time it’s a Welsh derby with Cardiff welcoming the Dragons. Cardiff is fresh of a moral boosting victory over the Sharks while the Dragons had a disappointing home loss against the Stormers. The Cardiff team surprised many with their scrum dominance over the Sharks and they will look to attack the Dragons at scrum time as the Stormers gave the Dragons front row a difficult time throughout their match. The Dragons looked bereft of ideas when going forward and only scored their points when the Stormers were down to 14 men. Cardiff actually looked very good in attack with Willis Halaholo looking particularly dangerous every time he touched the ball. Cardiff have excellent attacking players but they choose to kick the ball too often and I feel they could score a lot more points with a ball in hand approach.

TIP: The Cardiff team will look to gain scrum dominance from the onset so that can lay the platform for their potent backline. The Cardiff player that has disappointed me is star winger Josh Adams. On the Lions tour he looked to be genuine world class but has started this season really slow. They will be looking for a big game from him and his too good a player not to come good. The Dragons have international stars Aaron Wainwright and Ross Moriarty in their loose trio and these players need to have a big game. When these players play well then the Dragons look like they can beat anyone. The bookies have Cardiff as the favourites and I also tip them for the win. The best odds on this bet are as follows:  Worldsportsbetting 1.40, Playabets 1.34 and Sunbet 1.33

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

Cardiff vs Dragons

  • In the last five matches between the sides Cardiff have been the victors.
  • In 12 home matches, Cardiff has only lost once to the Dragons.
  • The only time the Dragons won in Cardiff was in 2014.

Latest results for both teams

Cardiff won their last match 23-17 against the Sharks while the Dragons lost 24-10 to the Stormers in their last match.

PREDICTION

The form book goes out the window when it comes to local derbies but the Dragons will know that they have to be at their very best as they have only ever won once in Cardiff. Cardiff will look to get their ball runners more involved in the game as the Dragons struggle when the game is played at a high tempo. The Dragons on the other hand will want to slow the game down and go to the set piece plays. This plan could backfire if they can’t find parity at scrum time. They must use their backline as they possess two flyers on the wings in Jonah Holmes and Jordan Olowofela. The latter is superb in the air and no doubt the Dragons will be testing the Cardiff back three with an aerial bombardment.Cardiff look to have more threats in attack therefore I predict a home win by more than 8 points.

  • Probable Starting XVs

Cardiff

15 Matthew Morgan, 14 Aled Summerhill, 13 Ray Lee-Lo, 12 Willis Halaholo, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Will Boyde, 7 Ellis Jenkins, 6 Josh Turnbull (c), 5 Rory Thornton, 4 Seb Davies, 3 Dillon Lewis, 2 Kirby Myhill, 1 Rhys Carr

Dragons

15 Jordan Williams, 14 Jonah Holmes, 13 Jack Dixon, 12 Aneurin Owen, 11 Jordan Olowofela, 10 Sam Davies, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Taine Basham, 6 Ross Moriarty (c), 5 Ben Carter, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Mesake Doge, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Greg Bateman

Odds for this bet

The best odds on the Cardiff victory are as follows:

Worldsportsbetting 1.40

Playabets 1.34

Sunbet 1.33

Odds comparison on the Cardiff handicap victory :

The complete odds on the Cardiff handicap victory:

Worldsportsbetting (-6.5) 1.90

Sunbet (-7.5) 1.93

Playabets (-7.5) 1.91

Predictions and Odds in details

I’m excited to see the Cardiff team running from the back as they have one of the most dangerous back three’s in the competition. Matthew Morgan can be deadly from fullback and the Dragons must make certain that their box kicking is accurate. Morgan with Adams by his side will run the Dragons ragged if they are given space. When Rhys Priestland was signed this season there was great hope that he would launch the Cardiff attack but he seems to be taking time to settle. The Cardiff fans will be hoping that this is the match that he finally delivers. There are poor returns for punters betting on the Cardiff outright win therefore I suggest the home team on the handicap. The best odds on this bet are as follows: Worldsportsbetting (-6.5) 1.90, Sunbet (-7.5) 1.93 and Playabets (-7.5) 1.91

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