Waratahs vs Rebels

This match could produce the upset of Super Rugby AU and the Waratahs will be desperate to get a win in their last home match of the competition. They have shown in recent weeks that the return of skipper Jake Gordon is the tonic they needed and suffered heart breaking last minute losses to the Brumbies and Force. This looks like a new team since Gordon’s return and a far cry from the team that was being thrashed by record defeats. The Waratahs may be on the rise but the Rebels seen to be on a downward spiral and their lack of finishing cost them again in their last match against the Brumbies where they dominated for long periods but did not have the cutting edge to turn possession into points. The sheer pride of the Waratahs will drive them although they have a very young and inexperienced team there is plenty of potential in the team and none more so than Ben Donaldson who was excellent at flyhalf on his Waratahs debut. He attacked the defensive line, set up a try and also kicked six out of six for a fantastic first start. The Rebels have the same old problem of lack of penetration in their attack and I feel the biggest challenge is getting star winger Marika Koroibete to stay on the wing and not infield by the rucks. For a world class winger like Koroibete not to have scored a single try all tournament is mind boggling. The Rebels seem to kick the ball away every time they get it with no apparent intent to attack which is why they score so few tries. It’s time that captain Matt Toomua changes his game plan and attacks as a defeat here will spell the end of the Rebels playoff hopes.

TIP: The Waratahs are on their longest losing streak in the clubs proud history and that desperation will them see them break the seven game losing streak. The appointment of Chris Whitaker as interim coach has shown a marked improvement in the teams overall performance and experienced players like Gordon and Izaia Perese are stepping up which has given the youngsters in the team more confidence. The Rebels will also be desperate to win as they chase the final playoff position. Personally I feel they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs because of their boring mindset and kicking strategy. The bookies have the Rebels as heavy favourites but I see a major upset with the Waratahs winning at home. There are fantastic odds on the upset victory at Worldsportsbetting 4.00, Playabets 3.60 and Sunbet 3.35.

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

Waratahs vs Rebels

  • In the last 5 matches the Rebels lead by 3 wins to the Waratahs 2.
  • In the last 10 home matches against the Rebels the Waratahs have only lost twice.
  • The Waratahs lost their most recent home match against the Rebels 29-10.

Latest results for both teams

The Waratahs lost their last match against the Force 31-30 while the Rebels lost their last match against the Brumbies 20-26.

PREDICTION

The Waratahs will need all the support they can get and will hope that the fans turn up for the last home game of the season. The Waratahs looked very dangerous each time they ran the ball and I’m sure this will be the tactic once again. The Rebels may have the edge on the forwards but the Waratahs have some silky runners in their backline like Jack Maddocks and James Ramm and if Jake Gordon and get quick ball then the upset is on the cards. The Rebels are a great defensive team so the Waratahs will need to vary their attack to break them down while the Rebels need to do something different to score tries and I don’t see them fixing their problems in a week. This is the reason I’m going for a shock Waratahs victory by 3 points

  • Probable  Starting XVs

Waratahs

15 Jack Maddocks, 14 Alex Newsome, 13 Izaia Perese, 12 Lalakai Foketi, 11 James Ramm, 10 Ben Donaldson, 9 Jake Gordon (c), 8 Will Harris, 7 Carlo Tizzano, 6 Lachlan Swinton, 5 Max Douglas, 4 Hugh Sinclair, 3 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 2 David Porecki, 1 Angus Bell

Rebels

15 Tom Pincus, 14 Frank Lomani, 13 Stacey Ili, 12 Campbell Magnay, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Matt To’omua (c), 9 Joe Powell, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Brad Wilkin, 6 Michael Wells, 5 Ross Haylett- Petty, 4 Robert Leota, 3 Cabous Eloff, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Cameron Orr

Odds for this bet

The best odds on the Waratahs upset victory are as follows:

Worldsportsbetting 4.00

Sunbet 3.35

Playabets 3.60

Odds comparison on the Waratahs handicap

Worldsportsbetting (+7.5) 2.00

Sunbet (+7.5) 1.94

Playabets (+8.5) 1.83

Predictions  and Odds in detail

The Waratahs will certainly be fired up for this encounter and must look to score early points and build a lead as the Rebels seem to have the stronger bench. The Waratahs must constantly keep them under pressure and capitalize on any mistakes. The home team must use their superior midfielders Izaia Perese and Lalakai Foketi to get them over the advantage line which would lay the platform for their wingers to attack. The man that will decide this contest is Jake Gordon as he has the all round game to test the Rebels and also has a huge boot to get the Waratahs out of any trouble. The performance of Ben Donaldson up against experienced Matt Toomua will be the deciding factor in the match and I’m backing the young man to win this duel. The odds on the Waratahs win are certainly very appealing but if you are looking for a banker bet then I suggest the Waratahs on the handicap and these are the best odds on the handicap: Worldsportsbetting (+7.5) 2.00,Sunbet (+7.5) 1.94 and  Playabets (+8.5) 1.83

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