Blues vs Brumbies

This could be the season that the Blues finally fulfill the expectations of their fans. They have looked good in their first two games coming away with bonus point wins. The Brumbies will be looking for a response from their team after the mauling they received at the Chiefs last week. They have shown the ability to bounce back in the past and will need all that resilience against a fired up Blues team. The Blues have dominated teams up front but that tactic will not work against the Brumbies who themselves have a very strong forward pack. The home team still do not look coherent in attack with the halfback pairing yet to convince that they are the best players for those positions. The return of Hoskins Sotutu to the team will further boost the Blues while the Brumbies welcome back Wallaby number 9 Nic White. He was sorely missed against the Chiefs and his game management will be crucial against the Blues. The Brumbies player that has impressed the most this season is Rob Valetini. He has carried very effectively and almost always gets through the first tackle which provides his team with go forward ball. The battle between him and Sotutu will go a long way to deciding the match. The Brumbies used to be a one trick pony and only relied on their driving maul to score but they have evolved and have attacking threats like Tom Banks and Tom Wright who have blistering pace out wide. The Blues will hope their winger Bryce Heem can replicate his form from last week when he scored two tries and was making meters with every carry.

TIP: The Brumbies have a simple game plan that has worked for them and I don’t expect them to change their tactics. They will hope to match the Blues in the scrum as the hosts are super strong in this area. The Blues will go a long wat to winning this match if they can nullify the rolling maul of the Brumbies. As I said before the Brumbies do have other attacking options so the Blues will need to be aware of this. The player that has disappointed for the Blues is Rieko Ioane and he seems to have lost that pace that made him so dangerous. He still has that wing mentality although he is playing in the centre position. I say this because he never passes and allows the attack to break down. The bookies have the Blues as favourites and I agree with them although I think this will be a close match. The best odds on the Blues victory are at: Worldsportsbetting 1.18, Playabets 1.11 and Sunbet 1.18

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

Blues vs Brumbies

  • The last six meeting between the teams have seen each side win 3 matches apiece.
  • The Brumbies have only beaten the Blues once in Auckland.
  • The last time the Blues lost at home to the Brumbies was in 2010.

Latest results for both teams

The Blues won their last match against the Waratahs 48-21 while the Brumbies lost their last match against the Chiefs 40-19.

PREDICTION

The Brumbies have shown that they are the best balanced of the Aussie teams in the competition. They have a good blend of powerful forwards and dangerous backs. This match will not be easy for the Blues as I feel the Brumbies definitely hold the edge in the halfbacks. The kicking game of Nic White and Noah Lolesio is far superior to the Blues pair. This game management is important as the Blues like to run the ball from their own half. The Brumbies have another kicking option in Tom Banks. The Blues need to be aware of giving away penalties as Banks will use his big boot to gain territory for the Brumbies. The strength of the Blues is their bench and I expect this game to be close until the final quarter when the Blues replacements will win the game for them. I predict a tight match with the Blues winning by less than 10 points

  • Probable Starting XVs

Blues

15 Zarn Sullivan, 14 Bryce Heem, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 TJ Faiane, 11 AJ Lam, 10 Otere Black, 9 Finlay Christie, 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Blake Gibson, 6 Tom Robinson (captain), 5 Josh Goodhue, 4 Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, 3 Ofa Tuungafasi, 2 Kurt Eklund, 1 Karl Tu’inukuafe.

Brumbies

15 Tom Banks, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Rob Valetini , 7 Rory Scott, 6 Nick Frost, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 James Slipper.

Odds for this bet

The best odds on the Blues victory are as follows:

Worldsportsbetting 1.18

Playabets 1.11

Sunbet 1.18

Odds comparison on a Brumbies handicap :

The complete odds on the Brumbies handicap:

Worldsportsbetting (+13.5) 1.90

Sunbet (+14.5) 1.85

Playabets (+13.5) 1.85

Predictions and Odds in details

The matches between these sides have tended to be close contests and I expect this trend to continue. The Brumbies showed against the Crusaders that they are a team that can really punish the opposition if given cheap penalties. The Blues seem to have the stronger team but it will come down to which team plays as a unit and not as individuals. The scrum battle will decide the outcome and I think this should be an even contest between the starting front rows. The advantage for the Blues will come when the replacements arrive as they have All Black props on the bench. The Brumbies will need a lead going into the final quarter as the Blues are at their strongest during this time. The Brumbies will be competitive but will eventually succumb in the last 20 minutes. The Blues don’t offer much value on the outright win therefore I suggest the Brumbies to cover the handicap. The best odds on the Brumbies handicap is as follows: Worldsportsbetting (+13.5) 1.90, Sunbet (+14.5) 1.85 and Playabets (+13.5) 1.85

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