Reds vs Chiefs

This promises to be the match of the round although these teams come into this match with contrasting fortunes. The Chiefs blew away the Brumbies while I can only say that the Reds were thrashed in their own back yard. The Reds are playing this home match away from Suncorp and maybe the change of environment will help them forget last week’s thrashing. The Reds came into this tournament having won SR AU but have suffered two heavy defeats. The Chiefs have no such issues and after having a lucky win over the Force in round one they were excellent against the Brumbies last week. Reds Coach Brad Thorn is a proud man and would have been angry and embarrassed by his team’s performance against the Crusaders. I expect that the players got a real roasting from Thorn and we could see a backlash from them. The scrum has been the Reds major weapon all season but was weak against the Crusaders. Their front row will need to step up this week as the Chiefs also have a strong scrum. The Chiefs are the off load specialists and if they are allowed space on the park then the Reds will be in for another loss.  The Chiefs possess the best loose trio in the comp. with Luke Jacobsen and Lachlan Boshier excellent at winning turnover ball. The Reds will need to cut down on basic errors like knocking the ball on as the Chiefs score most of their tries from turnover ball. The battle that I’m most looking forward to is the flyhalf duel between Damian Mckenzie and James O’Connor. We all know how dangerous Dmac can be but he has developed a great kicking game as well while O’Connor needs to fire up his backline for the Reds to win this match.

TIP: The Reds will need to get back to basics and use the tactics that brought them success in SR AU. They are a forwards orientated team and when they try to run the ball they make mistakes which are punished by the NZ teams. They need to bring in their heavy ball carriers like Taniela Tupou and Hunter Paisami more into the game. The return of Filipo Daugunu must be immediate because he is being wasted on the bench. He is without doubt the most dangerous attacking weapon for the Reds. It’s useless bringing him on when you already 30 points down as was the case against the Crusaders. The bookies have the Chiefs as favourites but I am tipping the Reds on the upset victory. The pride of this Reds team was severely dented last week and I expect a huge response from them. The best odds on the Reds upset victory is at: Worldsportsbetting 3.50, Playabets 3.55 and Sunbet 2.95

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

Reds vs Chiefs

  • The previous five meetings between these sides have all been won by the Chiefs.
  • The Reds last won against the Chiefs in 2013.
  • The Reds last won at home against the Chiefs in 2012.

Latest results for both teams

The Reds lost their last match against the Crusaders 63-28 while the Chiefs beat the Brumbies 40-19 in their last match.

PREDICTION

The Australian teams were ridiculed in the press as they have lost all their matches in this competition. We all know that the Aus. players are very proud therefore I expect a backlash from them this week. The Reds have the most to prove as they are the Aus. SR champions. They do have a fantastic team but can they find their SR AU form remains to be seen. The Chiefs will look to add injury to insult by beating them again. The Reds will need to be in it by the last quarter because they have a very strong bench. For the Reds they will want more from their loose trio to try and nullify the threat from the Chiefs loosies. I feel all the travelling that the Chiefs had to do in the first three week could see them fatigue late in the match. This match will go down to the wire and I predict the Reds to win this match by 3 points.

  • Probable Starting XVs

Reds

15 Bryce Hegarty, 1 Filipo Daugunu 4, 13 Hunter Paisami, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Jock Campbell, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Liam Wright (captain), 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Angus Scott-Young, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Feao Fotuaika

Chiefs

15 Chase Tiatia, 14 Bailyn Sullivan, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Jonah Lowe, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Brad Weber (captain), 8 Luke Jacobson, 7 Lachlan Boshier, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Josh Lord, 3 Sione Mafileo, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Aidan Ross.

Odds for this bet

The best odds on the upset Reds victory are as follows:

Worldsportsbetting 3.50

Playabets 3.55

Sunbet 2.95

Odds comparison on a Reds handicap :

The complete odds on the Reds handicap:

Worldsportsbetting (+7.5) 1.90

Sunbet (+7.5) 1.90

Playabets (+7.5) 1.80

Predictions and Odds in details

The Chiefs team don’t seem to have many weaknesses as they have a powerful yet mobile forwards pack and electric backline players like Chase Tiatia and Jonah Lowe. They will look again to All Black Anton Lienert-Brown to create some magic and his offloading game has been brilliant. We can’t look past the irrepressible Mckenzie who is the heart and soul of this team. James O’Connor and co. will need to stop him from running the show otherwise they will be well beaten. The Reds forwards were mauled badly last week and only a dominant display with ease the pain. They are well capable of that as they have Tupou and Harry Wilson who can trouble any defence on their day. The player that has gone quiet for the Reds is livewire number 9 Tate McDermott who needs to return to his sniping best to trouble the Chiefs. There may be punters who are unsure whether to back the Reds on the upset win therefore I suggest a safety bet on the Reds handicap. The best odds on the Reds handicap is as follows: Worldsportsbetting (+7.5) 1.90, Sunbet (+7.5) 1.90 and Playabets (+7.5) 1.80

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