29-10-2021 Daily Predictions Bunnings NPC Canterbury vs Tasman

Canterbury vs Tasman

It’s do or die time for Canterbury as a loss will see them out of the playoff places for the second year running. This is a disappointing season for the traditional power house of NZ rugby and the defending champions Tasman will be keen to dump them out of the competition. The major problem with Canterbury has been that they are very inconsistent blowing hot one week and cold the next. The problems in attack stems from having flyhalf Fergus Burke in such poor form. He has struggled to link the backline and the problem was made worse with injuries to key backs Mitchell Drummond and Josh Mckay. Opposition teams have snuffed out their attacks as it is one dimensional and lacks creativity. Tasman have no such issues in attack and have steamrolled their way through opposition defenses led by the brilliant Leicester Faingaanuku.

TIP: Canterbury has dominated this competition in recent years and their play was typified by a strong forward back and a devastating attack. Sadly they have neither now and they are coming up against the team with the strongest forward pack. Tasman has quality throughout their team especially with a loose trio of Shannon Frizell, Havili Talitui and Jacob Norris backed up by arguably the best lock combination in the competition. Canterbury will need their experienced players like Luke Romano and Waisake Naholo to really stand up and motivate this team as a loss will be the end of the season for them. They will hope that they can find some sort of rhythm in attack to trouble the Tasman defence. The bookies have Tasman as favourites and I am also tipping them for the win. The best odds on this bet are as follows:  Worldsportsbetting 1.50, Playabets 1.45 and Sunbet 1.48

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

Canterbury vs Tasman

  • In the last five matches between the teams there have been three Canterbury wins and two for Tasman.
  • The home team has lost the last three matches between the two.
  • The last time Canterbury won at home against Tasman was in 2017.

Latest results for both teams

Canterbury lost their last match 22-20 against Otago while Tasman lost their last match against Hawkes Bay 34-22.

PREDICTION

There is no more destructive runner in the competition than Tasman’s Leicester Faingaanuku. He has beaten more defenders than any other player and almost always gets over the advantage line. He gives his team the platform to attack and that makes it very difficult for opposition defenses. Canterbury will need to watch him closely although the match will be decided in the forwards. Tasman certainly has the edge in this department. The home team must look to keep ball in hand as this is their best chance otherwise the Tasman pack will control the game. They also have an excellent 10 in Mitch Hunt who always seems to make the right decision whether to run or kick. His game management is his obvious strength. The overall quality of Tasman makes me predict an away win by 6 points.

  • Probable Starting XVs

Canterbury

15 Chay Fihaki, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Isaiah Punivai, 12 Dallas McLeod,11 Manasa Mataele, 10 Fergus Burke, 9 Jono Kitto, 8 Henry Stowers, 7 Mitch Gibson, 6 Reed Prinsep (C), 5 Sam Darry, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Oli Jager, 2 Brodie McAlister, 1 Daniel Lienert Brown

Tasman

15 Marshall T, 14 Telea M, 13 Faingaanuku L., 12 O’Maley T., 11 Tavatavanawai T, 10 Hunt M., 9 GrooMby J., 8 Frizell S., 7 Havili Talitui,6.J Norris J,5 Strange Q, 4 Parkinson P. 3 Matenga S. 2 Moli S. 1 Tu’ungafasi I.

Odds for this bet

The best odds on the Tasman victory are as follows:

Worldsportsbetting 1.50

Playabets 1.45

Sunbet 1.48

Odds comparison on the Tasman handicap victory:

The complete odds on the Tasman handicap victory:

Worldsportsbetting (-4.5) 1.90

Sunbet (-4.5) 1.92

Playabets (-4.5) 1.81

Predictions and Odds in details

Tasman will be seeking a victory that will almost certainly guarantee a home semifinal in the playoffs. Their forwards are their strength but they have exciting backline players like Tom Marshall and Mark Telea. Both these players are great at counter attacking so the Canterbury halfbacks need to be accurate with their kicking. The hosts most dangerous back this season is young Chay Fihaki. He has been electric with the few opportunities that he has been given but I prefer him on the wing than his new fullback position. He looks out of place in this new position. The bookies are offering decent returns on the Tasman win but the value bet is on the away team to cover the handicap. The best odds on this bet are as follows: Worldsportsbetting (-4.5) 1.90, Sunbet (-4.5) 1.92 and Playabets (-4.5) 1.81

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