Brumbies vs Rebels

The Brumbies have started this season like a house on fire and destroyed the hapless Waratahs 61-10 last week. They have made their home ground an absolute fortress winning 17 of their last 18 games at home. The Rebels started their campaign last week against the Reds and were heavy underdogs but put on an excellent display and were desperately unlucky not to win as Matt Toomua missed a last minute penalty. The Rebels need to find a way to stop the Brumbies biggest weapon, the rolling maul. The Rebels gave a good account of themselves and their forward pack stood up to a very strong Reds pack. We know the Brumbies pack is a powerful one and their game revolves on pack dominance. The Rebels pack must front up to have any chance in this match.

TIP: Brumbies are hot favorites for this match and I can’t see anything except a Brumbies victory. They are almost unbeatable on their home patch and have the upper hand on the Rebels. The bookies have given the Rebels a 13.5 point handicap and I expect the Brumbies to cover this as this is two converted tries. Sunbet has the Brumbies at 1.90 on a -13.5 handicap while Hollywood bets have them at 1.90 on the same handicap.


Brumbies vs Rebels

  • In the last 5 meetings between the sides the Rebels lead 3 wins to 2.
  • The last 4 games between the sides have been won by the home team.
  • The last time the Rebels won in Canberra was in 2019.
  • Latest results for both teams

The Brumbies have convincingly won their opening two matches against the Western Force and the Waratahs. The Rebels narrowly lost their first match 23-21 to the Reds.


I am going for a home victory for the Brumbies and can’t see the Rebels stopping the Brumbies juggernaut. The Brumbies seem to have all bases covered from a powerful forwards pack to an electric backline. I am predicting a Brumbies victory by more than 14 points so that will cover the handicap spread of – 13.5.

  • Probable Starting XVs


15 Tom Banks, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Mack Hansen, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Jahrome Brown, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Connal McInerney, 1 James Slipper


15 Tom Pincus, 14 Lachlan Anderson, 13 Stacey Ili, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Matt To’omua (captain), 9 Joe Powell, 8 Michael Wells, 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Brad Wilkin, 5 Trevor Hosea, 4 Steve Cummins, 3 Pone Faamausili, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Cabous Eloff

Odds for this bet

The Brumbies decision to turn down kickable penalties and go for the try makes me confidant that they can cover the- 13.5 handicap.

Sunbet – Brumbies (-13.5) 1.90

Hollywoodbets – Brumbies (-13.5) 1.90

Sportingbet– Brumbies (-14.5) 1.91

Odds comparison

The bookies seem to have similar odds on the Brumbies -13.5 handicap but Sportingbet is giving slight better odds of 1.91 on -14,5 handicap.

 Predictions  and Odds in details

The overall prediction is this game is that it is going to be one sided in the Brumbies favour. They are the defending champions and have the same squad from last year along with the best coach in the competition, Dan Mckellar. The best offer with the handicap is Sportingbet– Brumbies- 14.5 at 1.91.

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