Rebels vs.Waratahs background

This is a special homecoming for the Rebels as they welcome the Waratahs to Melbourne. It’s been 377 days since the Rebels have played at home due to the lockdown regulations that have been in place in Melbourne. The Rebels will be buoyed by the victory away to the Force and I’m certain that they will want to play some thrilling rugby to satisfy their long starving fans. Once again the main man for the Rebels will be Matt Toomua as he typifies everything good about the Rebels. The Waratahs are coming off 3 successive defeats although their last loss against the Force was a narrow one. The match will be decided up front and the Rebels have shown that they have a pack that can stand up and dominate any opposition. The surprise package in the Rebels lineup has been prop Cabous Eloff and the big man has been strong in the scrum and been running around the park with explosiveness. He was rightly named MOTM in the last game. The Rebels will look to build on their win last week while the Waratahs will be desperate to break their duck.

TIP: Any side that has played away from home for more than a year will be itching to put on a show for their loyal supporters. The Waratahs away from home could be walking head long into a Rebels tornado and I expect a convincing Rebels win. The Rebels at home should be too strong for the Waratahs and I will confidently back them to cover the -11.5 handicap. The best odds on the Rebels handicap (-11.5) are at Worldsportsbetting at 2.01 and Sunbet at 1.90 while Supabets has the Rebels on the handicap (-10.5) at 1.90

HEAD TO HEAD STATS

Rebels vs. Waratahs

  • In the last 5 encounters the Waratahs hold the edge with 3 wins to 2
  • The Rebels have lost 6 of their last 7 matches at home to the Waratahs
  • The Rebels have only had 2 wins in the last 10 home games against the Waratahs with last win coming in 2020.

Latest results for both teams

The Rebels beat the Force 10-7 last week while the Waratahs lost their last match against the Force 20-16. The Waratahs had a bye last week.

PREDICTION

The Rebels definitely have the better pack and we know rugby games are decided by the forwards while the backline decides by how many points. The Rebels biggest weapon has been their scrum while it’s been the Waratahs biggest weakness. The Rebels know how to use their forwards and that will lay the platform for Marika Koroibete and Reece Hodge to show their attacking skills. The Waratahs on the road have been easy pickings and I expect this to continue and the Rebels will win this match by more than 13 points.

  • Confirmed Starting XVs

Rebels

15 Tom Pincus, 14 Lachlan Anderson, 13 Stacey Ili, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Matt To’omua (captain), 9 Joe Powell, 8 Michael Wells, 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Joshua Kemeny, 5 Steve Cummins, 4 Trevor Hosea, 3 Pone Faamausili, 2 James Hanson, 1 Cabous Eloff

Waratahs

(15-1)Jack Maddocks, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Alex Newsome (c), Tepai Moeroa, James Ramm, Will Harrison, Jack Grant, Jack Dempsey, Carlo Tizzano, Lachie Swinton, Jack Whetton, Sam Caird, Harry Johnson-Holmes, Tom Horton, Angus Bell

Odds for this bet

This match should be a close affair and the draw at 23/1 at Sunbet should not be completely ruled out. The best odds for a Rebels victory are as follows:

There is much value on a Rebels win at 1.16 therefore I suggest the Rebels on the handicap at (-11.5) and the best odds on the handicap are as follows:

Worldsportsbetting 2.01

Sunbet 1.90

Supabets (-10.5) 1.90

Odds comparison

The best odds on the Rebels handicap (-11.5) win is at Worldsportsbetting at 2.01 and the next best is Supabets (-10.5) at 1.90. Sunbet has them at 1.90 on the -11.5 handicap

 Predictions  and Odds in detail

The Rebels are heavy favorites to win this one but the odds on a straight win for the Rebels will not do any punter justice. The Rebels have shown glimpses this season of what they are capable of I know this is the game when everything comes together. The Waratahs are in for a long night in Melbourne and that’s why I am suggesting the Rebels on the handicap (-11.5). Worldsportsbetting is pricing this handicap at 2.01 while Sunbet is at 1.90. Supabets has them at 1.90 on a -10.5 handicap.

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