An overview of the latest edition of the FIFA World Cup – we outline the best outright predictions and tips for betting on outright markets.
The greatest sporting showpiece is about to thrill billions of hearts yet again as the latest edition of the FIFA World Cup kicks off in Canada, Mexico and the USA. The expansion of the FIFA World Cup to 48 teams, split into 12 groups, promises to be one of the biggest tournaments in football history, with more matches for fans. For punters, this means a huge number of betting markets to explore and more opportunities to find greater value and select a country to claim the ultimate prize in football.
Will Argentina and Messi reclaim their World Cup trophy? Will France go a step further from 2022 and claim their second in the past decade? Can England end their six-decade wait and finally bring the World Cup home? Will Ancelotti finally wake up the sleeping giant that is Brazil and claim their sixth, or will CR7 finally get his hands on the coveted trophy for Portugal? This article will provide you with an insight into the 2026 World Cup outright markets and offer some of our picks for who may be victorious and lift the trophy.
What is Outright Betting in the FIFA World Cup?
Betting on an outright market simply means placing a wager on the overall winner of the World Cup. Outright bets are generally placed before a tournament can take place, as odds will be at their highest, especially for favourites. You can also place bets on the outright market during the competition until the final; however, the odds will be different.
Placing a bet on the outright market is great, especially if your nation is not participating in the World Cup, and you need a team to support. Luckily for us South Africans we have a team to support, as Bafana Bafana’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are 500/1.
Furthermore, outright betting allows you to hedge your position later on in the tournament. For example, for the 2022 World Cup, you would have gotten pre-tournament odds of 5/1 for Argentina to lift the trophy. At half-time of the final, when Argentina were winning 2-0, France had odds of 10/1 to lift the trophy, allowing you to hedge your position, end with profit, and not have to worry about the dreaded penalty shoot-out.
Top Contenders to Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup
The outright winner market is always the most popular pre-tournament bet. The odds for the World Cup winner are based on past performances, current form, their chances of winning, and their squads. Below, we look at the top five contenders and their odds to become the 2026 World Cup Champion from World Sports Betting:
2026 FIFA World Cup outright odds at WSB
Spain (9/2)
Spain goes into the World Cup as the bookie’s favourite, and it is no surprise given their strong showings in the Euros and the Nations League. As the reigning Euro champs, La Roja has a strong, young side that has played under coach Luis de la Fuente at youth level. Despite their poor showing at Qatar, we expect Spain to go far in North America and should be in contention to lift the World Cup.
England (13/2)
After a slow start under Thomas Tuchel, England have found great form, winning all eight of their qualifying matches while conceding no goals. The Three Lions boast a strong side led by 2018 Golden Boot winner Harry Kane, who is in great scoring form. After coming agonisingly close in recent tournaments, this could be the year that England ends their six-decade wait for World Cup glory.
France (8/1)
After narrowly missing out on back-to-back World Cup wins after losing the Qatar final on penalties, Les Bleus will be determined to rectify this blunder and regain the World Cup. France has a star-studded lineup led by the current Ballon d’Or winner, Ousmane Dembele and Real Madrid talisman Kylian Mbappe. With Didier Deschamps at the wheel, Les Bleus should have all the makings to claim the coveted prize.
Argentina (8/1)
The reigning World Cup champions are one of the favourites to lift the trophy as their talisman, Lionel Messi, should be ready to hang up his boots, and the la Albiceleste faithful will be eager to send him off with another World Cup title. Despite an ageing defensive line, Qatar World Cup-winning coach Lionel Scaloni remains at the helm and, with an exciting attack, should be able to take Argentina far into the World Cup and challenge for the glory.
Brazil (8/1)
It has been over two decades since Brazil last won a World Cup, and the stakes are at an all-time high for new boss Carlo Ancelotti. Brazil has not qualified well, losing to three of the four teams that finished above them. However, they have a good side with a wealth of experience and a talented forward line. Led by Vinicius Junior, the Seleção will be eager to prove their doubters wrong and win their sixth World Cup trophy.
How Does Qualification Performance Affect Outright Odds?
Qualification for the World Cup affects betting odds as it can alter a team’s performance by improving their form and psychological edge or showcasing a team’s ongoing struggles. Teams that tend to perform well during qualifications have favourable odds at the World Cup.
For example, before qualification, bookies did not regard Norway as a strong contender to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. However, after their dominant performance in their qualification group, knocking out Italy to the playoffs, and the form of their talisman, Haaland, Norway’s odds to lift the trophy dropped to 25/1.
Historically, Italy has been a strong team at the FIFA World Cup, but has been knocked into the playoff rounds by Norway. If they win the European playoff round, they will be among the frontrunners to lift the trophy, which may increase the outright odds of the favourites.
Long-term Betting Strategy for World Cup Outrights
The key for South Africans when placing long-term World Cup bets is to find markets where your expert knowledge and analysis give you an edge over the bookies’ perception. The expansion to 48 teams will create more opportunities for upsets and unexpected results, underscoring the need to take time to study the World Cup odds. Additionally, the number of games players are forced to play may lead to teams with better squads winning, as seen in the recent AFCON, where the favourites came out on top. Some tips from our experts at TopBets, who provide analysis on the contenders for the World Cup title, are:
- Consider the potential knockout paths teams will face when selecting your outright bet.
- Back at least two or three teams, so that you can spread your risk across multiple odds.
- Track player injuries to see who will be at the World Cup.
- Do not allow friendly matches to dictate your bets, as many managers experiment during friendlies.
- Keep track of the odds during the World Cup to identify potential exit strategies, such as hedging, to ensure you come out with some profit.
- Try alternate marks or bets, such as reaching the final or semi-final, or take each-way bets on the winner.
Value Picks and Dark Horses for the Next World Cup
While not in the frontline to lift the trophy, some powerhouses should go far in the World Cup and may even lift it. Higher odds on strong dark horses are perfect bets in addition to your favourite outsiders, as they spread out your risk and allow the option of hedging your position. If the odds for winning the World Cup are too high, placing an each-way bet or advancing to the semi-finals or finals may be a better option. These are the teams we believe could go far in the World Cup:
Portugal (11/1)
With CR7 entering his sixth and final World Cup, Seleção das Quinas will be eager to claim their first World Cup trophy to send him off. Portugal has a strong and talented young squad that is sure to compete at the highest level for years to come. With Roberto Martinez at the helm, Portugal are vibrant in attack and solid at the back and should be a dark horse to lift the trophy.
Germany (12/1)
After failing to win the 2024 Euros on home soil, Germany will hope to improve on their 2018 and 2022 group-stage exits and reach the knockout rounds. Julian Nagelsmann has brought a sense of pride back to Die Mannschaft and, despite their defensive frailties, has been terrorising defences with their high-pressing game and attacking flair from Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz. If their players can withstand the high stamina usage from their pressing style, Germany can go far in the World Cup, and we may see Joshua Kimmich lift the trophy.
Netherlands (20/1)
After a strong showing in Qatar, where they bowed out on penalties to eventual winners Argentina, the Netherlands are underdogs to go far in the World Cup. The Dutch have a strong, well-balanced squad led by Memphis Depay and Cody Gakpo. Ronald Koeman has built a strong defensive team that has proven difficult to defeat, while devastating in attack through effective counter-attacks led by their pacy wingers.
Norway (25/1)
After qualifying for their first major tournament since 2000, Norway are not considered among the frontrunners to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Stale Solbakken has created a strong and well-balanced side that has to be able to defeat World Cup regulars such as Italy. Løvene are in great form and are led by arguably the best striker football has seen in Erling Haaland, who will be a favourite for the Golden Boot. Norway have a nice group and should see themselves into the knockouts where form is all that matters.
FAQs
What is the difference between outright and match betting?
An outright bet is a bet placed on the winner of a tournament or competition, while a match bet is a bet placed on the winner of a single match. Match bets are usually paid out at the end of a match, while outright bets are paid out at the end of the tournament.
Do outright odds change during the tournament?
Yes, outright odds can change, especially as more teams are eliminated from the competition. Odds can also change based on a team’s performance through the tournament.
Can I cash out on World Cup outright bets?
No, outright bets cannot be cashed out. However, you can hedge your position if the opportunity arises.
Is it better to place outright bets before the tournament starts?
Yes, odds tend to shorten as the tournament progresses, as favourites perform well and more teams are eliminated, reducing the field.
