How betting odds work
Betting odds can look confusing when you first start betting. There are numbers everywhere and every selection has a different price. Once you know what those numbers are telling you, though, things become much easier.In simple terms, odds show what a bet is worth. They also give you an idea of how likely the bookmaker thinks that result is. You don’t need to be a maths expert to understand them. For decimal odds, which are commonly used in South Africa, most of the calculations are actually very simple.
What are betting odds?
Think of betting odds as the price of your bet.Open a football match on a betting site and you might see the home team at 1.60, the draw at 3.80 and the away team at 5.50.Straight away you can see who the favourite is. The team at 1.60 is expected to have the better chance of winning. The 5.50 team is the outsider.That doesn’t mean the favourite will definitely win. It simply means you won’t get as much money back for backing them.
For example, R100 at 1.60 returns R160 if the bet wins. The same R100 at 5.50 returns R550.There is obviously a big difference in the payout.There is also a big difference in the risk.
Main betting odds formats
You may come across decimal, fractional and American odds.Decimal odds are the ones most South African bettors will recognise. Prices such as 1.75, 2.10 and 4.50 are decimal odds.Fractional odds look more like 2/1 or 5/2. They are still common in Britain, particularly with horse racing.American odds are displayed differently again. They use prices such as +150 or -200.
Don’t let the different formats confuse you. They are all showing a price for the same bet.If one bookmaker displays decimal odds and another displays fractional odds, it doesn’t mean they are offering completely different types of bets. They are just showing the numbers differently.
For this article, we’ll stick mainly to decimal odds because they are the easiest to work with and most common for local punters.
How decimal odds work
The calculation is easy.
Stake × odds = total return.
Let’s say you want to put R100 on a rugby team at 1.80.
R100 × 1.80 = R180.
If the team wins, R180 comes back to you.
Your profit isn’t R180 because your original R100 is included in that amount. The profit is R80.
Now let’s use a bigger price.
You fancy an outsider at 4.00 and put R50 on it.
R50 × 4.00 = R200.
The bet wins and R200 comes back. Take away your R50 stake and you’ve made R150 profit.Most online bookmakers calculate this for you on the bet slip. Still, knowing how it works is useful. You can look at the odds and quickly work out whether the possible return is worth the stake you’re considering.
Why betting odds change
If you follow a match for a few days, you may notice the price moving.Maybe you saw a team at 2.20 on Tuesday. By Saturday morning they’re 1.90.Nothing is wrong with the betting site. Odds change.Team news is often involved.Imagine a big rugby match is coming up. Everyone expects the home side to pick its strongest team. The team sheet arrives and six regular starters have been rested.
The bookmaker may change the price. Punters may also start putting money on the opposition.Football works the same way. An injury to a first-choice goalkeeper or leading striker can affect a market. Suspensions can do it too.Sometimes there isn’t one dramatic reason for a price move. The market simply changes as more information and betting money come in.
How bookmakers set betting odds
A bookmaker has to put a price on every outcome it offers.That isn’t done by someone sitting in an office and guessing.Statistics play a part. Recent results matter too. So do things like injuries, home advantage, the quality of the opposition and previous performances.
Let’s say a strong football club is playing at home against a team near the bottom of the league. It wouldn’t make much sense to price both teams at the same odds.The stronger team will normally be shorter.But sport isn’t predictable enough for bookmakers to get every match right. Upsets happen every week.
Odds aren’t a guarantee. They are a price built around the bookmaker’s view of the chances of something happening.You are free to disagree with that view. In fact, that is a big part of betting. You might look at a team priced at 3.00 and think the bookmaker has underestimated its chances.
What is the bookmaker margin?
The bookmaker also needs something in the market for itself.This is usually called the margin.A coin toss is a nice way to understand it.Heads has a 50% chance.Tails also has a 50% chance.If you were dealing with completely fair decimal prices, both sides would be 2.00.
A bookmaker might offer 1.90 on heads and 1.90 on tails instead.So you bet R100 at 1.90 and win. You get R190 back.At 2.00, that same R100 would have returned R200.That gap is part of how the bookmaker builds an advantage into its prices.You don’t have to calculate the bookmaker margin every time you place a bet. It is still useful to know that it exists.It also explains why comparing prices can be worthwhile.
How odds work in different betting markets
There are loads of ways to bet on the same match.A football game is a good example.The most obvious market is the match result. Home win, draw or away win.Then you might see both teams to score.There will probably be total-goals markets too. Over 2.5 goals is a common one.
Keep scrolling and you may find handicaps, first goalscorer, correct score, corners and cards.Every market has its own odds.A simple result will often have a lower price than something very specific.Suppose Liverpool are 1.50 to win. You might get a much bigger price for Liverpool to win exactly 3-1.Why?Because you’re no longer asking for just a Liverpool victory. You need the exact score as well.More has to go right therefore bigger odds.
How live betting odds work
Live betting is where prices can really move around. Say a football team starts at 2.00.They score in the first ten minutes.Look at the market again and they might now be 1.45.They are already ahead, so the situation has changed.If they concede first instead, you could see their odds move the other way.
Time is critical in live betting, A team losing 1-0 after 20 minutes still has plenty of time to come back. If they’re still behind with five minutes remaining, that’s a very different situation.Red cards can cause sudden changes. So can penalties and late goals.This is why you sometimes click on a live price and find that it has changed before you can place the bet.Don’t rush the confirmation screen.Check the odds again before accepting the bet.
How odds work in accumulators
An accumulator puts a few selections together. This is where people often get attracted by the payout.Say you choose three teams:
Team A at 1.50
Team B at 2.00
Team C at 1.80
Multiply those prices and the combined odds are 5.40. Put R100 on the accumulator and the possible return is R540. The payouts are excellent but the difficult part is getting all three results right.If the first two teams win and the third one loses, your normal accumulator is beaten.
Add another team and the odds climb again.Add another after that and they get even bigger.It can look fantastic on the bet slip, especially when a small stake suddenly shows a large possible return.But every extra selection is another result you need to get right.
That’s why a big accumulator payout shouldn’t be confused with an easy way to make money.
Tips for comparing betting odds
One bookmaker may have a team at 1.75 while another has it at 1.85. You’re backing exactly the same team to do exactly the same thing.So why take 1.75 if 1.85 is available?
The difference looks small when you’re betting R20. It becomes easier to see with a larger stake.
R1,000 at 1.75 returns R1,750.
R1,000 at 1.85 returns R1,850.
That’s an extra R100 for the same winning selection.
Also, don’t get carried away by high odds.
Seeing 12.00 next to a team can make the payout look very attractive. There is normally a good reason the price is that big.The same thinking applies to very short favourites.A team priced at 1.10 is expected to win, but 1.10 doesn’t mean it cannot lose. We’ve all seen favourites beaten.Look at what you’re being asked to risk and what you’re getting back.
Sometimes the bet simply isn’t worth it.
FAQ
What do betting odds mean?
Betting odds show the price of a selection and determine how much you could receive if your bet wins.
How do I calculate winnings from betting odds?
With decimal odds, multiply your stake by the odds to calculate your total potential return.
Why do betting odds change?
Odds can change because of team news, injuries, betting activity, market information and developments during a live event.
Are higher betting odds always better?
No. Higher odds offer a larger potential return, but they normally indicate that the outcome is considered less likely to happen.
Writer / Betting tipster
I am what you call a sporting all-rounder with my favourite sports being rugby, football and cricket. I have been actively writing rugby and football articles for the last decade. These include previews, reviews and interesting topical pieces. I am a huge fan of Liverpool and a passionate supporter of the Springboks. My interests in recent years have also included iGaming as this is one of the fastest growing betting markets. Follow me for the best rugby odds in South Africa as I continue to find you the best bookie to place your bets.
