Brazil
World CupWhy this tip?
Despite predicting Brazil to defeat Scotland to nil in their final group game, I cannot see the Seleção keeping a clean sheet against a Japanese team that scored in each of their last ten outings, which saw them go on a ten-game unbeaten run. However, I believe Brazil has the better side, with their star players finding form at the right time, and I expect the Seleção to qualify in regulation time, defeating Samurai Blue 2-1.
Match Preview
- Competition: FIFA World Cup 2026
- Matchday: Last 32
- Date: 29 June 2026
- Kick-off time: 12:00 USA (19:00 SA)
- Venue: Houston Stadium (NRG Stadium)
Match details
The last 32 of the FIFA World Cup is upon us, which features Brazil and Japan clashing at the Houston Stadium (NRG Stadium) in Houston, Texas. The match is set to take place on the 29th of June 2026, commencing at 12:00 (GMT-5) in Houston, and 19:00 (GMT+2) in South Africa. We are entering the knockout stage of the greatest sporting competition in the world, and if you are enjoying our expert coverage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, head over to our Topbets World Cup predictions page.
Why this match matters
The second match of the last 32 sees Group C winners Brazil taking on Group F runner-ups Japan for a place in the last 16. Both teams have impressed in the World Cup thus far and are undefeated after the group stage. Japan has struggled at the knockout stage in World Cups and has never won a knockout match in their four previous attempts. They now have the unenviable task of breaking this curse against the most decorated international team, Brazil, which has won five World Cup titles.
Brazil vs Japan head-to-head stats
Head-to-head record
Brazil and Japan are no strangers in men’s senior international football, having met ten times, with their last encounter occurring last year. I suspect that Brazil will be looking to avenge their latest meeting with Japan, which saw the Asian team upset and pick up their first victory over the South American giants.
In their ten encounters, Brazil has scored 25 goals, while Japan has scored 7 goals.
Brazil dominates the head-to-head record (7 – 2 – 1), winning seven times, with their last five matches ending:
- 14/10/2025 (Friendly International): Japan 3 – 2 Brazil
- 06/06/2022 (Friendly International): Japan 0 – 1 Brazil
- 10/11/2017 (Friendly International): Japan 1 – 3 Brazil
- 14/10/2014 (Friendly International): Japan 0 – 4 Brazil
- 15/06/2013 (FIFA Confederations Cup): Brazil 3 – 0 Japan
Brazil’s recent form
Brazil’s last five matches: WWDWW–
Brazil are in great form, winning four and drawing one of their last five matches, against the following teams:
- 25/06/2026 (FIFA World Cup): Scotland – 3 Brazil
- 20/06/2026 (FIFA World Cup): Brazil 3 – 0 Haiti
- 14/06/2026 (FIFA World Cup): Brazil 1 – 1 Morocco
- 07/06/2026 (Friendly International): Brazil 2 – 1 Egypt
- 31/05/2026 (Friendly International): Brazil 6 – 2 Panama
Brazil’s recent outings showcased their ageing squad, which has conceded 4 goals in four of their last five outings. Despite their tired legs, Brazil’s frontline had showcased their blistering pace on the counter, scoring 15 goals in their last five. Brazil are undefeated in their last five, gaining victories against Panama and Egypt heading into the FIFA World Cup.
Brazil’s World Cup campaign started off with a solid performance against Morocco, which saw them gain a point, before defeating Scotland and Haiti by three goals without conceding. However, from what I have seen, their recent success was driven more by individual brilliance than by a tactical or team effort, with Real Madrid talisman Vinícius Júnior pivotal to their dominance.
Japan’s recent form
Japan’s last five matches: WWDWD–
Japan enters the knockout round in great form, having won three and drawn twice in their last five outings. Their last five matches were against:
- 26/06/2026 (FIFA World Cup): Japan 1 – 1 Sweden
- 21/06/2026 (FIFA World Cup): Tunisia 0 – 4 Japan
- 14/06/2026 (FIFA World Cup): Netherlands 2 – 2 Japan
- 31/05/2026 (Friendly International): Japan 1 – 0 Iceland
- 31/03/2026 (Friendly International): England 0 – 1 Japan
Japan has been in exceptional form since qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, winning 7 and drawing 3 of their last ten outings. They had picked up huge wins against England, Scotland, Ghana and their upcoming opponents, Brazil.
Japan has taken their form into the World Cup, putting away a dreadful Tunisian side while picking up good draws against the Netherlands and Sweden. In their last five outings, Japan has scored 9 goals, while conceding 3 goals. They have built a reputation as a solid defensive unit, but I cannot see how they will stop a relentless Brazilian onslaught.
Team news
Brazil team news
Injuries: Raphinha (Hamstring Injury) & Wesley Franca (Muscle Injury)
Suspensions: N/A
Key players to watch: Vinícius Júnior is Brazil’s talisman and the main focal point of their attack. I believe that his explosive acceleration, coupled with his elite 1v1 dribbling out wide, will cause problems for the Japanese defence. Neymar has returned to the Brazil squad after Raphina’s injury and will be their creative spark in the number 10 role off the bench. Lucas Pacquetá will dictate much of Brazil’s buildup play, linking the midfield to the frontline. He frequently makes dangerous runs into the box and should be a source of goals. Casemiro remains the defensive anchor and will be pivotal in shutting down and neutralising the Japanese offensive counter-attacks. Bruno Guimarães will be tasked with dropping back to receive the ball from his defence before rapidly passing it up the field to beat the Japanese press.
Japan team news
Injuries: Watato Endo (Foot Injury), Koga Itakura (Doubt), Shuto Machino (Virus) & Takefusa Kubo (Muscle Injury)
Suspensions: N/A
Key players to watch: Ayase Ueda leads the Japanese attack and is their premier goal threat. He has history against the Brazilians, having scored the winning goal in their 3-2 triumph earlier this season. Parma shot-stopper Zion Suzuki has been pivotal to Japan’s unbeaten run. I expect him to be put to the test against a blistering Brazilian attack and will need to replicate the world-class saves he made during the group stage. With captain Wataru Endo sidelined, Daichi Kamada provides the tactical maturity and calm composition to deal with the experience and physicality of the Brazilian midfield. The goal threat and relentless work rate of Daizen Maeda will be needed to match the attacking prowess of Vinicius Júnior, by providing the outlet to Japan’s counter-attack on the flanks.
Predicted lineups
Brazil predicted XI
Carlo Ancelotti has implemented a highly pragmatic 4-3-3, which shifts to a defensive 4-4-2 without the ball. Brazil will look to maximise field coverage to suffocate the Japanese attack and limit the spatial pockets they thrive in. Having topped group C, I suspect that Ancelotti will maintain his midfield core while plugging holes left by heavy injuries. I expect an unchanged side by the Seleção, with their starting XI to feature:
Alisson Becker (G) – Danilo – Marquinhos (C) – Gabriel Magalhães – Douglas Santos – Casemiro – Bruno Guimarães – Lucas Paquetá – Rayan – Vinícius Júnior – Matheus Cunha.
Japan predicted XI
Hajime Moriyasu has built his side to adapt and shift drastically based on the opposition. His system looks to overload a single flank in attack, drawing in the defence before switching play to the unmarked opposite winger. In defence, Japan will look to compress open spaces off the ball, suffocating the flair of the Brazilian attack. I predict the Samurai Blue to use the 3-4-2-1 formation, with their starting XI featuring:
Zion Suzuki (G) – Takehiro Tomiyasu – Shogo Taniguchi (C) – Hiroki Ito – Ritsu Doan – Kaishu Sano – Ao Tanaka – Keito Nakamura – Daizen Maeda – Daichi Kamada – Ayase Ueda.
Best betting markets for Brazil vs Japan
Match winner
Prediction: Brazil to win @ 77/100 (1.77) at BetXchange.
Over/Under goals
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (2.10) at WSB.
Both teams to score
Prediction: Both teams to score Yes @ 1/1 (2.00) at BetXchange.
Anytime goalscorer
Prediction: Vinícius Júnior to score anytime @ 25/10 (2.5) at Hollywoodbets.
The knockout round of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is up and running, and for more insights into the 2026 FIFA World Cup or tips on the daily footie action, check out our Topbets Football Predictions page on our website.
Brazil vs Japan prediction
Best bet
Prediction: BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals @ 31/20 (2.55) at Hollywoodbets.
Correct score prediction
Prediction: Match to end 2 – 1 to Brazil @ 9/1 (10.00) at WSB.
Match analysis and verdict
Brazil and Japan meet for the second time this season in the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Japan managed to defeat the Seleção in October and will be looking to get just their second win over the Brazilians. However, they will have a tough task ahead of them against a Brazilian side in great form, with their star man Vinícius Júnior bagging all three man of the match awards during the group stage.
Despite predicting Brazil to defeat Scotland to nil in their final group game, I cannot see the Seleção keeping a clean sheet against a Japanese team that scored in each of their last ten outings, which saw them go on a ten-game unbeaten run. However, I believe Brazil has the better side, with their star players finding form at the right time, and I expect the Seleção to qualify in regulation time, defeating Samurai Blue 2-1.
Writer/Betting Tipster
I have been in the iGaming industry for a decade and am an avid sports bettor and fan. I have expanded my betting knowledge to create articles on the iGaming industry focusing on online casino content and sports betting analysis for several regions, including South Africa. I cover various sports, including Soccer, Cricket and Horse Racing. All my predictions, tips and insights are thoroughly researched and I aim to help fellow punters in beating the bookies!
